Başakşehir 0–3 Trabzonspor: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Trabzonspor

B. Mendy 87'

O. Tufan 62'

S. Banza 6'

3/15/2025

League #203 · Round 28Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Başakşehir36%

×Draw21%

Trabzonspor43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.98

Başakşehir

1.80

Trabzonspor

1.98

Trabzonspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.80

2.17

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.00

Trabzonspor

1.80

allows per match

Başakşehir

2.17

Trabzonspor

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

57%

Başakşehir or Trabzonspor

79%

Draw or Trabzonspor

64%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

18%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

83%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

54%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

27%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

86%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

59%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

46%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.00 + Trabzonspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Trabzonspor attack 1.80 + Başakşehir defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Başakşehir scores more

36%

level

21%

Trabzonspor scores more

43%

Trabzonspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

U. Çakır

Trabzonspor · G

8.6

Match Events

6'

S. Banza↳ Pedro Malheiro

43'

Deniz Türüç

43'

Batista Mendy

49'

Deniz TürüçGoal cancelled

54'

Simon Banza

59'

Krzysztof PiątekMissed penalty

60'

S. Saatçı← H. Türkmen

61'

M. Cham← D. Sikan

62'

64'

64'

69'

69'

João Figueiredo← Y. Sarı

78'

C. Opéri← O. Ba

78'

P. Keny← K. Piątek

79'

Ö. Beyaz← Miguel Crespo

80'

Ömer Ali Şahiner

85'

O. Zubkov← O. Tufan

87'

B. Mendy↳ M. Cham

90+1'

T. Jabol-Folcarelli← B. Mendy

90+1'

A. Boşluk← E. Višća

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaşakşehirTrabzonspor

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots9

1.37Expected Goals (xG)1.34

4Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target4

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

12Inside Box7

1Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

431Total Passes378

374Accurate Passes317

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

2.29Goals Prevented2.29

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0

League #203: Başakşehir 0–3 Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 3-0 in League #203 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: S. Banza (6'), O. Tufan (62'), B. Mendy (87').

Başakşehir controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Başakşehir 0–3 Trabzonspor