Başakşehir 1–0 Hatayspor: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hatayspor

1/16/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Başakşehir61%

×Draw22%

Hatayspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchHatayspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.84

Başakşehir

1.83

Hatayspor

0.84

Başakşehir creates 118% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

2.46

creates per match

1.00

0.69

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.46

Hatayspor

1.00

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.69

Hatayspor

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Hatayspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

83%

Başakşehir or Hatayspor

78%

Draw or Hatayspor

39%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

35%

Hatayspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

84%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

54%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

28%

Hatayspor 1+ goals

57%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

21%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

78%

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Hatayspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.46 + Hatayspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hatayspor attack 1.00 + Başakşehir defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Başakşehir scores more

61%

level

22%

Hatayspor scores more

17%

Başakşehir at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff