Başakşehir 1–0 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ankaragücü

João Figueiredo 90+5'

5/4/2023

Türkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Başakşehir63%

×Draw20%

Ankaragücü17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.01

Başakşehir

2.12

Ankaragücü

1.01

Başakşehir creates 110% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

2.46

creates per match

1.33

0.69

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.46

Ankaragücü

1.33

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.69

Ankaragücü

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

83%

Başakşehir or Ankaragücü

80%

Draw or Ankaragücü

37%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

39%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

88%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

62%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

35%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

64%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

27%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

78%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.46 + Ankaragücü defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.12

Ankaragücü attack 1.33 + Başakşehir defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Başakşehir scores more

63%

level

20%

Ankaragücü scores more

17%

Başakşehir at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

42'

45+3'

46'

46'

T. Chatzigiovanis← Milson

55'

Lucas Biglia

66'

P. Szysz← B. Özcan

66'

M. Tekdemir← A. Januzaj

71'

T. Antalyalı← A. Đokanović

71'

B. Moussiti-Oko← E. Kılınç

72'

Caner Erkin

78'

Muhammed Şengezer

82'

D. Türüç← P. Szysz

83'

Lucas Lima← S. Gürler

90+6'

Kévin Malcuit

90+5'

João Figueiredo↳ D. Türüç

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BaşakşehirAnkaragücü

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots4

5Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots4

3On Target0

4Off Target4

4Blocked0

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3