Ankaragücü 2–1 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

AET

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Başakşehir

T. Chatzigiovanis 90'

A. Sowe 11'

P. Keny 111'

S. Gürler 61'

5/25/2023

Türkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ankaragücü50%

×Draw23%

Başakşehir26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.22

Ankaragücü

1.77

Başakşehir

1.22

Ankaragücü creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

2.39

creates per match

1.54

0.89

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

Başakşehir

1.54

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

Başakşehir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

74%

Ankaragücü or Başakşehir

77%

Draw or Başakşehir

50%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

27%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

83%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

53%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

26%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

70%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

34%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

66%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

50%

level

23%

Başakşehir scores more

26%

Ankaragücü at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

-5'

11'

38'

46'

46'

D. Türüç← Ş. Özbayraklı

61'

65'

65'

77'

85'

D. Aleksić← S. Gürler

88'

T. Chatzigiovanis← L. Diack

90+2'

90'

96'

96'

97'

98'

98'

100'

111'

P. Keny↳ C. Erkin

113'

M. Arslantaş← João Figueiredo

115'

Muhammed Şengezer

120+3'

Emre Kılınç

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AnkaragücüBaşakşehir

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots9

5Corners3

22Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target4

8Off Target2

5Blocked3

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls17

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir

Ankaragücü beat Başakşehir 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on May 25, 2023.

Goals: A. Sowe (11'), S. Gürler (61'), T. Chatzigiovanis (90'), P. Keny (111').

Başakşehir controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.

Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir