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Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Başakşehir
Başakşehir
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
12/18/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Başakşehir77%
×Draw16%
Adana Demirspor7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Başakşehir
2.23
Adana Demirspor
0.51

Başakşehir creates 337% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Başakşehir
2.46
Adana Demirspor
0.33

allows per match

Başakşehir
0.69
Adana Demirspor
2.00

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par
Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Adana Demirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw
93%
Başakşehir or Adana Demirspor
84%
Draw or Adana Demirspor
23%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+
52%
Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals
89%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
65%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
38%
Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
40%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
9%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)
92%
Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.46 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Adana Demirspor attack 0.33 + Başakşehir defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Başakşehir scores more
77%
level
16%
Adana Demirspor scores more
7%

Başakşehir at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor

Başakşehir beat Adana Demirspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 18, 2018.

The match was played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul.