Adana Demirspor 1–1 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Başakşehir

12/5/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 5th Round5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Adana Demirspor59%

×Draw20%

Başakşehir21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.27

Adana Demirspor

2.24

Başakşehir

1.27

Adana Demirspor creates 76% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

3.33

creates per match

1.54

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

3.33

Başakşehir

1.54

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.00

Başakşehir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

79%

Adana Demirspor or Başakşehir

80%

Draw or Başakşehir

41%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

37%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

89%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

65%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

38%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

72%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

36%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

74%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.24

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

59%

level

20%

Başakşehir scores more

21%

Adana Demirspor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff