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Basake Holy Stars vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
11/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Basake Holy Stars59%
×Draw27%
Accra Lions14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basake Holy Stars
1.44
Accra Lions
0.56

Basake Holy Stars creates 157% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 67 away

creates per match

Basake Holy Stars
1.30
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

Basake Holy Stars
0.55
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basake Holy Stars ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Basake Holy Stars or draw
86%
Basake Holy Stars or Accra Lions
73%
Draw or Accra Lions
41%

Winning margin

Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
30%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
76%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
42%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
18%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
43%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
11%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basake Holy Stars at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.55 · 33 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basake Holy Stars attack 1.30 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Basake Holy Stars defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Basake Holy Stars scores more
59%
level
27%
Accra Lions scores more
14%

Basake Holy Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Basake Holy Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Basake Holy Stars 2–1 Accra Lions

Basake Holy Stars beat Accra Lions 2-1 in Premier League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.