Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Accra Lions vs Basake Holy Stars — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
4/12/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Accra Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Accra Lions59%
×Draw26%
Basake Holy Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.54
Basake Holy Stars
0.65

Accra Lions creates 137% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Basake Holy Stars
0.45

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Basake Holy Stars
1.76

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Basake Holy Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
84%
Accra Lions or Basake Holy Stars
74%
Draw or Basake Holy Stars
41%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
31%
Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
79%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
45%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
20%
Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
48%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
14%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
79%
Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Accra Lions scores more
59%
level
26%
Basake Holy Stars scores more
16%

Accra Lions at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accra Lions vs Basake Holy Stars

Accra Lions beat Basake Holy Stars 2-1 in Premier League on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Accra Sports Stadium in Accra.