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Barrow vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tranmere
Tranmere
J. Stevens 38'
K. Hemmings 82'
J. Turnbull 6'
12/29/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 24SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow32%
×Draw28%
Tranmere40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.11
Tranmere
1.26

Tranmere creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.81
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
60%
Barrow or Tranmere
72%
Draw or Tranmere
68%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
13%
Tranmere wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
67%
Barrow 2+ goals
30%
Barrow 3+ goals
10%
Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
36%
Tranmere 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
45%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barrow scores more
32%
level
28%
Tranmere scores more
40%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. TurnbullTranmereTranmere · D
7.9

Match Events

6'
J. Turnbull↳ E. Bristow
38'
J. Stevens↳ B. Whitfield
58'
P. Lewis← J. Mumbongo
64'
B. Waters← J. Stevens
75'
R. Gotts← S. Foley
76'
Paul Lewis
82'
K. Hemmings↳ J. Dacres-Cogley
85'
R. Bennett← B. Whitfield
85'
S. Nwabuokei← H. Neal
87'
D. Simeu← J. Hawkes
90+3'
Josh Gordon

Possession

54%Barrow

Shots

17Barrow

Pass accuracy

54%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowTranmere
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots11
5Corners4
12Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots11
4On Target7
4Off Target3
9Blocked1
9Inside Box6
8Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
365Total Passes311
245Accurate Passes175
67%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Barrow vs Tranmere

Tranmere beat Barrow 2-1 in League Two on December 29, 2022.

Goals: J. Turnbull (6'), J. Stevens (38'), K. Hemmings (82').

Barrow controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.