Barrow 1–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tranmere

S. Quigley 65' (pen)

J. Vaughan 23'

12/29/2020

League Two · Round 21Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow32%

×Draw28%

Tranmere40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.26

Barrow

1.11

Tranmere

1.26

Tranmere creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

0.81

creates per match

1.15

1.38

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Tranmere

1.42

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

60%

Barrow or Tranmere

72%

Draw or Tranmere

68%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

13%

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

67%

Barrow 2+ goals

30%

Barrow 3+ goals

10%

Tranmere 1+ goals

72%

Tranmere 2+ goals

36%

Tranmere 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

45%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barrow scores more

32%

level

28%

Tranmere scores more

40%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Dixon

Barrow · G

8.2

Match Events

23'

J. Vaughan↳ L. Feeney

45'

Patrick Brough

53'

Harrison Biggins

60'

Liam Feeney

65'

S. QuigleyPenalty

68'

68'

68'

70'

76'

K. Woolery← M. Ferrier

90+1'

J. Jones← J. Kay

90+4'

D. Angus← S. Quigley

90'

O. Banks← K. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowTranmere

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots16

3Corners7

11Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target10

2Off Target4

4Blocked2

6Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

301Total Passes356

192Accurate Passes241

64%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

9Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2