Barrow 0–1 Salford City: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salford City

A. Hunter 49'

12/5/2020

League Two · Round 16Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow31%

×Draw26%

Salford City43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.46

Barrow

1.20

Salford City

1.46

Salford City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.81

creates per match

1.55

1.38

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Salford City

1.58

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

57%

Barrow or Salford City

74%

Draw or Salford City

69%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

13%

Salford City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

70%

Barrow 2+ goals

34%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Salford City 1+ goals

77%

Salford City 2+ goals

43%

Salford City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

42%

Salford City (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Salford City attack 1.55 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barrow scores more

31%

level

26%

Salford City scores more

43%

Salford City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Hunter

Salford City · M

7.7

Match Events

7'

21'

44'

49'

61'

71'

D. Angus← J. Reid

71'

H. Biggins← T. Beadling

75'

J. Turnbull← L. Burgess

76'

T. Elliott← Bruno Andrade

80'

83'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowSalford

Overview

39%Possession61%

20Total Shots9

5Corners8

7Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots9

4On Target3

11Off Target4

5Blocked2

10Inside Box4

10Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

294Total Passes480

182Accurate Passes363

62%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides5