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Barrow vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
I. Fletcher 90'
J. Gordon 83'
D. Rose 82'
T. Pett 88'
K. Payne 49'
4/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Holker Street

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow26%
×Draw27%
Oldham47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
0.98
Oldham
1.40

Oldham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.81
Oldham
1.41

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Oldham
1.16

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par
Oldham-0.05on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
53%
Barrow or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
74%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
9%
Oldham wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
62%
Barrow 2+ goals
26%
Barrow 3+ goals
8%
Oldham 1+ goals
75%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
36%
Oldham (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Oldham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Oldham attack 1.41 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barrow scores more
26%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
47%

Oldham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. PettOldhamOldham · M
8.0

Match Events

11'
Scott Smith
22'
Angus MacDonald
49'
K. Payne↳ J. Robson
53'
Dynel Simeu
61'
Josh Gordon
63'
J. Leake← D. Simeu
70'
E. Newby← B. Whitfield
70'
O. Hammond← J. Garner
74'
I. Fletcher← S. Smith
79'
J. Hawkes← K. Drummond
82'
D. Rose↳ M. Williams
83'
J. Gordon
88'
T. Pett
90+2'
J. Thompson←
90'
I. Fletcher↳ E. Newby

Possession

43%Barrow

Shots

12Barrow

Pass accuracy

46%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowOldham
Overview
43%Possession57%
12Total Shots10
7Corners4
7Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target5
4Off Target3
4Blocked2
10Inside Box5
2Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
260Total Passes364
142Accurate Passes232
55%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls16
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Barrow vs Oldham

Barrow beat Oldham 3-2 in League Two on April 14, 2026.

Goals: K. Payne (49'), D. Rose (82'), J. Gordon (83'), T. Pett (88'), I. Fletcher (90').

Oldham controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Holker Street in Barrow in Furness.