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Barrow vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
12/29/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 24The Dunes Hotel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barrow25%
×Draw27%
Oldham48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
0.92
Oldham
1.39

Oldham creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.68
Oldham
1.40

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Oldham
1.16

finishing

Barrow-0.28scores less
Oldham+0.06on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
52%
Barrow or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
75%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
9%
Oldham wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
60%
Barrow 2+ goals
23%
Barrow 3+ goals
7%
Oldham 1+ goals
75%
Oldham 2+ goals
40%
Oldham 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
34%
Oldham (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.68 + Oldham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Oldham attack 1.40 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barrow scores more
25%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
48%

Oldham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barrow 0 – 0 Oldham

Barrow and Oldham drew 0-0 in League Two on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at The Dunes Hotel Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.