Barrow 3–2 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Crawley Town

S. Quigley 90+5', 36' (pen)

T. Davies 9'

J. Powell 84'

G. Francomb 31'

3/20/2021

League Two · Round 37Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow35%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.40

Barrow

1.30

Crawley Town

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

0.81

creates per match

1.42

1.38

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Crawley Town

1.42

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Crawley Town

1.79

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

61%

Barrow or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

65%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

15%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

73%

Barrow 2+ goals

37%

Barrow 3+ goals

14%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

75%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

41%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

47%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.30

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barrow scores more

35%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

39%

Crawley Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Powell

Crawley Town · F

7.7

Match Events

9'

T. Davies↳ O. Banks

31'

G. Francomb↳ T. Nichols

36'

S. QuigleyPenalty

64'

A. Nadesan← A. Davies

68'

N. Tsaroulla← J. Tunnicliffe

76'

J. Maguire-Drew← J. Tilley

82'

C. Taylor← B. Barry

84'

J. Powell↳ J. Maguire-Drew

88'

T. Beadling← O. Banks

88'

D. Sea← L. James

90'

Thomas Beadling

90+5'

S. Quigley↳ C. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowCrawley

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots9

3Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots9

8On Target2

3Off Target4

1Blocked3

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

294Total Passes446

136Accurate Passes296

46%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0