Barrio México 0–1 AD Guanacasteca: Result & Stats

Barrio México

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AD Guanacasteca

Y. Molina 52'

5/2/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Barrio México52%

×Draw23%

AD Guanacasteca25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barrio MéxicoExpected goals in this matchAD Guanacasteca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.15

Barrio México

1.78

AD Guanacasteca

1.15

Barrio México creates 55% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 50 away

2.07

creates per match

1.52

0.77

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Barrio México

2.07

AD Guanacasteca

1.52

allows per match

Barrio México

0.77

AD Guanacasteca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

AD Guanacasteca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw

75%

Barrio México or AD Guanacasteca

77%

Draw or AD Guanacasteca

48%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+

29%

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals

83%

Barrio México 2+ goals

53%

Barrio México 3+ goals

26%

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals

68%

AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals

32%

AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)

68%

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

AD Guanacasteca away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.07 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.52 + Barrio México defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barrio México scores more

52%

level

23%

AD Guanacasteca scores more

25%

Barrio México at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Y. Molina

58'

Y. Molina

58'

Y. Molina

101'

J. Munguia

101'

J. Munguia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff