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AD Guanacasteca vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacasteca
FT
1 – 2
Barrio México
Barrio Méxicoadvanced
P. Cordoba 73'
S. Cardenas 44'
E. Zuniga 19'
4/25/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Chorotega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

AD Guanacasteca40%
×Draw26%
Barrio México34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Guanacasteca
1.37
Barrio México
1.24

AD Guanacasteca creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 43 away

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.37
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.06
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw
66%
AD Guanacasteca or Barrio México
74%
Draw or Barrio México
60%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
18%
Barrio México wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
75%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
40%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
16%
Barrio México 1+ goals
71%
Barrio México 2+ goals
35%
Barrio México 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
54%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.37 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Barrio México attack 1.42 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more
40%
level
26%
Barrio México scores more
34%

AD Guanacasteca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
E. Zuniga
44'
S. Cardenas
45+2'
J. Zacarias
45+2'
J. Zacarias
73'
P. Cordoba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Guanacasteca 1–2 Barrio México

Barrio México beat AD Guanacasteca 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on April 25, 2021.

Goals: E. Zuniga (19'), S. Cardenas (44'), P. Cordoba (73').

The match was played at Estadio Chorotega in Nicoya.