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Baronie vs AWC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Baronie
Baronie
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AWC
AWC
9/24/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 6Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baronie42%
×Draw24%
AWC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baronie
1.67
AWC
1.47

Baronie creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Baronie
1.09
AWC
0.76

allows per match

Baronie
2.18
AWC
2.24

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par
AWC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

AWC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Baronie or draw
66%
Baronie or AWC
76%
Draw or AWC
58%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+
22%
AWC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals
81%
Baronie 2+ goals
50%
Baronie 3+ goals
23%
AWC 1+ goals
77%
AWC 2+ goals
43%
AWC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)
56%
AWC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

AWC away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + AWC defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

AWC attack 0.76 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baronie scores more
42%
level
24%
AWC scores more
34%

Baronie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Baronie 1–0 AWC

Baronie beat AWC 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion De Blauwe Kei in Breda.