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AWC vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

AWC
AWC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baronie
Baronie
2/25/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 23Sportpark De Wijchert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AWC44%
×Draw23%
Baronie32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AWC
1.72
Baronie
1.43

AWC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

AWC
0.88
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

AWC
1.65
Baronie
2.56

finishing

AWC+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AWC ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AWC or draw
68%
AWC or Baronie
77%
Draw or Baronie
56%

Winning margin

AWC wins by 2+
23%
Baronie wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AWC 1+ goals
82%
AWC 2+ goals
51%
AWC 3+ goals
25%
Baronie 1+ goals
76%
Baronie 2+ goals
42%
Baronie 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AWC (draw refunded)
58%
Baronie (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AWC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AWC attack 0.88 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Baronie attack 1.21 + AWC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AWC scores more
44%
level
23%
Baronie scores more
32%

AWC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AWC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AWC 3 – 0 Baronie

AWC beat Baronie 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wijchert in Wijchen.