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Barnsley vs Mansfield Town — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
14:00
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
3/29/2027League OneLeague One · Round 38Oakwell
44%
Barnsley
model favours
44%25%31%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Barnsley44%
×Draw25%
Mansfield Town31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.52
Mansfield Town
1.23

Barnsley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 46 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Mansfield Town
1.17

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Mansfield Town
1.35

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
69%
Barnsley or Mansfield Town
75%
Draw or Mansfield Town
56%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
22%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
45%
Barnsley 3+ goals
20%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
71%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
35%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
59%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Mansfield Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mansfield Town attack 1.17 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnsley scores more
44%
level
25%
Mansfield Town scores more
31%

Barnsley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Mansfield Town have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • Mansfield Town outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.5 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Mansfield Town
Balanced
52%PossessionBiggest gap42%
74%Pass accuracy69%
13.1Shots12.5
1.48xG1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyMansfield Town

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Barnsley
1
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 100%
2–22–31–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
Town
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley vs Mansfield Town — Match Preview

Barnsley face Mansfield Town on March 29, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnsley host Mansfield Town at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.