Barnsley 0–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League One

Barnsley

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Doncaster

E. Lee 65' (pen)

3/21/2026

League One · Round 39Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barnsley26%

×Draw22%

Doncaster52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.99

Barnsley

1.37

Doncaster

1.99

Doncaster creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.22

creates per match

1.92

2.06

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Barnsley

1.22

Doncaster

1.92

allows per match

Barnsley

2.06

Doncaster

1.52

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

Barnsley+0.18scores more

Doncaster-0.84scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

48%

Barnsley or Doncaster

78%

Draw or Doncaster

74%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

11%

Doncaster wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

75%

Barnsley 2+ goals

40%

Barnsley 3+ goals

16%

Doncaster 1+ goals

86%

Doncaster 2+ goals

59%

Doncaster 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

34%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.52 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.22 + Doncaster defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Doncaster attack 1.92 + Barnsley defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barnsley scores more

26%

level

22%

Doncaster scores more

52%

Doncaster at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Shepherd

Barnsley · D

8.2

Match Events

46'

J. Bland← S. Banks

54'

Robbie Gotts

60'

H. Adelakun← G. Middleton

64'

Corey O'Keeffe

65'

E. LeePenalty

71'

C. Lennon← R. Cleary

71'

V. Yoganathan← A. Phillips

74'

74'

79'

81'

90'

G. Broadbent← J. Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnsleyDoncaster

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots9

1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.48

4Corners2

8Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots9

3On Target2

8Off Target6

6Blocked1

10Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

444Total Passes364

348Accurate Passes261

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3