Barnsley 1–3 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League #46

Barnsley

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Doncaster

A. Marsh 78'

K. Hurst 84'

H. Clifton 72'

J. Ironside 45+1'

10/29/2024

League #46 · Group Stage - 7Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barnsley43%

×Draw22%

Doncaster36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.79

Barnsley

1.96

Doncaster

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

2.25

1.33

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Barnsley

1.67

Doncaster

2.25

allows per match

Barnsley

1.33

Doncaster

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

64%

Barnsley or Doncaster

78%

Draw or Doncaster

57%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

23%

Doncaster wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

86%

Barnsley 2+ goals

58%

Barnsley 3+ goals

31%

Doncaster 1+ goals

83%

Doncaster 2+ goals

53%

Doncaster 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

54%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Doncaster away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.67 + Doncaster defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Doncaster attack 2.25 + Barnsley defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barnsley scores more

43%

level

22%

Doncaster scores more

36%

Barnsley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

K. Hurst

Doncaster · F

8.3

Match Events

45'

Jonathan Bland

45+1'

J. Ironside↳ J. Senior

47'

Tom Anderson

60'

C. Barratt← J. Benson

60'

O. Bailey← J. Senior

67'

Brandon Fleming

68'

C. West← V. Yoganathan

69'

K. Hurst← J. Gibson

69'

E. Yeboah← T. Nixon

70'

H. Clifton← J. Sbarra

72'

H. Clifton↳ K. Hurst

78'

A. Marsh↳ K. Nwakali

79'

L. Molyneux← B. Close

80'

J. Dyer← J. Bland

84'

K. Hurst↳ L. Molyneux

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnsleyDoncaster

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots23

4Corners13

9Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots23

3On Target9

4Off Target6

4Blocked8

6Inside Box19

5Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

356Total Passes463

270Accurate Passes386

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides5