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Barnet vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
14:00
Oldham
Oldham
10/24/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 13The Hive Stadium
Big match
41%
Barnet
model favours
41%27%33%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barnet41%
×Draw27%
Oldham33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.34
Oldham
1.17

Barnet creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

creates per match

Barnet
1.48
Oldham
1.20

allows per match

Barnet
1.15
Oldham
1.20

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
67%
Barnet or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
59%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
19%
Oldham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
74%
Barnet 2+ goals
39%
Barnet 3+ goals
15%
Oldham 1+ goals
69%
Oldham 2+ goals
33%
Oldham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
56%
Oldham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.48 + Oldham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oldham attack 1.20 + Barnet defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barnet scores more
41%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
33%

Barnet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Barnet play Attack-heavy, Oldham Defensively solid
  • Barnet outscore their xG (2.0 vs 1.5 expected)
  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Attack-heavy
Oldham
Defensively solid
57%Possession48%
66%Pass accuracy63%
12.8Shots11.6
1.53xGBiggest gap1.11
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Barnet
2
Draws
1
Oldham
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
3–21–13–00–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DWWWW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet face Oldham (League Two)

League Two returns with Barnet hosting Oldham. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnet host Oldham at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.