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Barnet vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
14:00
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7The Hive Stadium
Big match
49%
Barnet
model favours
49%23%28%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Barnet49%
×Draw23%
Fleetwood Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.76
Fleetwood Town
1.27

Barnet creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.03
Fleetwood Town
1.23

allows per match

Barnet
1.32
Fleetwood Town
1.50

finishing

Barnet-0.21scores less
Fleetwood Town-0.05on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
72%
Barnet or Fleetwood Town
77%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
51%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
26%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
83%
Barnet 2+ goals
52%
Barnet 3+ goals
26%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
72%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
36%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
64%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.03 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fleetwood Town attack 1.23 + Barnet defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnet scores more
49%
level
23%
Fleetwood Town scores more
28%

Barnet at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Barnet play Possession-dominant, Fleetwood Town Defensively solid
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
55%Possession49%
68%Pass accuracy68%
13.8Shots12.2
1.68xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Barnet
0
Draws
4
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 50%
5–21–20–20–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet vs Fleetwood Town — Match Preview

Barnet face Fleetwood Town on September 19, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnet host Fleetwood Town at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.