Barnet 0–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Barnet

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

E. Bonds 50'

W. Davies 22'

8/2/2025

League Two · Round 1The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Barnet49%

×Draw23%

Fleetwood Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.27

Barnet

1.76

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Barnet creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.03

creates per match

1.23

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Barnet

2.03

Fleetwood Town

1.23

allows per match

Barnet

1.32

Fleetwood Town

1.50

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Barnet-0.21scores less

Fleetwood Town-0.05on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

72%

Barnet or Fleetwood Town

77%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

51%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

26%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

83%

Barnet 2+ goals

52%

Barnet 3+ goals

26%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

72%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

36%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

64%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.03 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fleetwood Town attack 1.23 + Barnet defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnet scores more

49%

level

23%

Fleetwood Town scores more

28%

Barnet at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Lynch

Fleetwood Town · G

8.2

Match Events

22'

50'

51'

59'

59'

D. Adeniran← Z. Brunt

71'

J. Norwood← R. Graydon

76'

M. Virtue-Thick← M. Helm

76'

C. Evans← W. Davies

77'

O. Hawkins← R. Browne

77'

K. Smith← R. Galvin

90+1'

G. Morrison← E. Bonds

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnetFleetwood

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots12

1.22Expected Goals (xG)1.70

8Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots12

6On Target7

5Off Target2

8Blocked3

11Inside Box8

8Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

490Total Passes243

393Accurate Passes150

80%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls15

4Offsides2