Barnet 0–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Barnet

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

A. Hunter 90'

C. Evans 29'

11/10/2019

League #45 · 1st RoundThe Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barnet11%

×Draw22%

Fleetwood Town67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.58

1.79

Barnet

0.58

Fleetwood Town

1.79

Fleetwood Town creates 209% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

1.33

2.25

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Barnet

0.50

Fleetwood Town

1.33

allows per match

Barnet

2.25

Fleetwood Town

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–117%

0–215%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

33%

Barnet or Fleetwood Town

78%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

89%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

3%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

44%

Barnet 2+ goals

12%

Barnet 3+ goals

2%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

83%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

53%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

15%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 0.50 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Fleetwood Town attack 1.33 + Barnet defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Barnet scores more

11%

level

22%

Fleetwood Town scores more

67%

Fleetwood Town at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Evans

Fleetwood Town · F

8.4

Match Events

29'

C. Evans

57'

E. Mason-Clark← D. Tutonda

62'

Mauro Vilhete

62'

P. Madden← C. McAleny

66'

Danny Andrew

69'

A. Hunter← K. Dempsey

76'

W. Burns← J. Morris

81'

O. Chime← J. Dunne

81'

S. Akinola← M. Vilhete

90'

Wes Burns

90'

A. Hunter↳ C. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnetFleetwood

Overview

49%Possession51%

6Total Shots13

1Corners7

9Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots13

1On Target7

3Off Target6

2Blocked0

5Inside Box10

1Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

336Total Passes341

206Accurate Passes198

61%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1