Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barnet vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
15:00
Crewe
Crewe
1/30/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 28The Hive Stadium
Big match
48%
Barnet
model favours
48%23%28%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Barnet48%
×Draw23%
Crewe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.78
Crewe
1.31

Barnet creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Barnet
1.31
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Barnet-0.01on par
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
72%
Barnet or Crewe
77%
Draw or Crewe
52%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
26%
Crewe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
83%
Barnet 2+ goals
53%
Barnet 3+ goals
26%
Crewe 1+ goals
73%
Crewe 2+ goals
38%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
63%
Crewe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Crewe attack 1.30 + Barnet defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barnet scores more
48%
level
23%
Crewe scores more
28%

Barnet at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Crewe
Balanced
56%Possession50%
69%Pass accuracy70%
13.3Shots11.4
1.71xGBiggest gap1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetCrewe

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Barnet
2
Draws
3
Crewe
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 63%
1–12–12–10–11–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
Crewe
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet face Crewe (League Two)

League Two returns with Barnet hosting Crewe. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnet host Crewe at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.