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Bari vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Bari
Bari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
R. Maniero 83' (pen), 18'
N. Di Roberto 60'
9/16/2016Serie BSerie B · Round 4San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bari32%
×Draw26%
Cesena42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari
1.23
Cesena
1.46

Cesena creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bari
1.08
Cesena
1.17

allows per match

Bari
1.76
Cesena
1.38

finishing

Bari-0.16scores less
Cesena-0.72scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bari or draw
58%
Bari or Cesena
74%
Draw or Cesena
68%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+
13%
Cesena wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals
71%
Bari 2+ goals
35%
Bari 3+ goals
13%
Cesena 1+ goals
77%
Cesena 2+ goals
43%
Cesena 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)
43%
Cesena (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 13 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.08 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cesena attack 1.17 + Bari defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bari scores more
32%
level
26%
Cesena scores more
42%

Cesena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
R. Maniero
21'
Daniele Capelli
27'
David Ivan
28'
Matteo Fedele
30'
Francesco Renzetti
46'
L. Garritano← M. Koné
57'
Milan Đurić
60'
N. Di Roberto
69'
Mattia Vitale
73'
Stefano Sabelli
73'
A. Schiavone← M. Vitale
76'
F. Daprelà← V. Di Cesare
76'
M. Romizi← M. Fedele
78'
Andrea Schiavone
82'
Antonio Cinelli
83'
R. ManieroPenalty
84'
G. Panico← E. Cascione
85'
G. Castrovilli← G. De Luca

Possession

49%Bari

Shots

13Bari

Statistics

BariCesena
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots7
3Corners2
20Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots7
3On Target1
10Off Target6
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls18
3Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Bari 2 – 1 Cesena

Bari beat Cesena 2-1 in Serie B on September 16, 2016.

Goals: R. Maniero (18', 83' pen), N. Di Roberto (60').

Cesena controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at San Nicola in Bari.