Barendrecht 5–3 Sparta Rotterdam II: Result & Stats

Barendrecht

FT

5 – 3

HT: 4 – 2

Sparta Rotterdam II

J. Chukwu 70'

B. de Bruin 44', 33'

T. Drexhage 41'

J. Jongman 12'

J. Bal 88'

A. Santos 35'

J. Jongman 31' (OG)

10/19/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 10Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Barendrecht38%

×Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarendrechtExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.85

Barendrecht

1.82

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 101 away

1.80

creates per match

1.78

1.92

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Barendrecht

1.80

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.78

allows per match

Barendrecht

1.92

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw

60%

Barendrecht or Sparta Rotterdam II

78%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II

62%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+

20%

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals

84%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

54%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

27%

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

84%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

55%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

49%

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.92 · 50 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.84 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 1.80 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.78 + Barendrecht defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barendrecht scores more

38%

level

22%

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

40%

Sparta Rotterdam II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. Jongman↳ B. de Bruin

29'

D. Monster

31'

J. JongmanOwn goal

33'

B. de Bruin↳ T. Drexhage

35'

A. Santos↳ E. Gorisson

41'

T. Drexhage↳ T. Bayram

44'

B. de Bruin↳ B. Vugts

46'

G. Mulumba← K. van den Hoek

46'

D. Vianello← G. Vianello

48'

61'

65'

67'

69'

70'

J. Chukwu↳ T. Drexhage

75'

B. de Bruin

82'

R. van der Stoep← B. de Bruin

82'

W. Vermeer← D. Monster

88'

J. Bal

89'

Y. el Meftahi← E. Gorisson

90+3'

T. de Graaf

Barendrecht

Sparta

1

Suur

4

▼

Hoek

3

Ligt

5

▼

Vianello

2

Wageninge

6

▼

Bynoe

8

Dahri

7

⚽

▼

Santos

10

Triep

9

⚽

Bal

11

A

▼

Gorisson

1

Meer

7

▼

Monster

3

Graaf

15

Rook

8

⚽🥅

Jongman

18

⚽2A

▼

Bruin

12

Schop

6

A

Bayram

9

⚽A

Drexhage

11

Mrowicki

17

A

▼

Vugts

Manager: L. van Steensel

69'▲J. Chukwu←▼B. Vugts

82'▲R. van der Stoep←▼B. de Bruin

82'▲W. Vermeer←▼D. Monster

Barendrecht substitutes

5Chukwu10Stoep4Vermeer30Kooiman16Dielhof2Brand14Kassels

Manager: J. Stans

46'▲G. Mulumba←▼K. van den Hoek

46'▲D. Vianello←▼G. Vianello

61'▲Y. Marhoum←▼J. Bynoe

67'▲T. Borrie←▼A. Santos

89'▲Y. el Meftahi←▼E. Gorisson

Sparta Rotterdam II substitutes

15Mulumba16Vianello19Marhoum14Borrie17Meftahi20Tevreden18Guit