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Barendrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Barendrecht
Barendrecht
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
N. Urban 82'
Unknown 53'
A. Serghini 10'
E. Gorisson 85'
A. Santos 62'
L. Kromah 47'
7/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Barendrecht25%
×Draw20%
Sparta Rotterdam II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barendrecht
1.45
Sparta Rotterdam II
2.23

Sparta Rotterdam II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Barendrecht
1.40
Sparta Rotterdam II
2.25

allows per match

Barendrecht
2.20
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.50

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw
45%
Barendrecht or Sparta Rotterdam II
80%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II
75%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+
11%
Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals
77%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
42%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
18%
Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
89%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
65%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)
31%
Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 1.40 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 2.25 + Barendrecht defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Barendrecht scores more
25%
level
20%
Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
55%

Sparta Rotterdam II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Serghini
47'
L. Kromah
53'
62'
A. Santos
82'
N. Urban
85'
E. Gorisson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Barendrecht 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam II

Barendrecht and Sparta Rotterdam II drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 23, 2024.

Goals: A. Serghini (10'), L. Kromah (47'), ? (53'), A. Santos (62'), N. Urban (82'), E. Gorisson (85').