Barcelona SC 4–1 Macara: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Barcelona SC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Macara

J. Dinenno 63', 57'

M. Caicedo 39'

D. Aimar 27'

J. Dinenno 24' (OG)

4/1/2018

Liga Pro · Round 7Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo (Guayaquil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barcelona SC45%

×Draw27%

Macara28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

Barcelona SC

1.36

Macara

1.02

Barcelona SC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.40

Macara

1.11

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.94

Macara

1.32

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Barcelona SC-0.20scores less

Macara+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

72%

Barcelona SC or Macara

73%

Draw or Macara

55%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

21%

Macara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

74%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

39%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

16%

Macara 1+ goals

64%

Macara 2+ goals

27%

Macara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

61%

Macara (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Macara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.40 + Macara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Macara attack 1.11 + Barcelona SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

45%

level

27%

Macara scores more

28%

Barcelona SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Arroyo← E. Esterilla

24'

J. DinennoOwn goal

27'

39'

57'

63'

69'

71'

75'

77'

78'

J. Cazares← R. de Jesús

Barcelona

Macara

23

6

19

8

24

5

▼

10

17

37

11

▼

Tévez

21

▼

1

2

31

4

19

⚽

Aimar

18

▼

Oyola

5

Marques

16

Castillo

17

⚽

▼

Caicedo

13

▼

Esterilla

9

⚽2🥅

Dinenno

Manager: G. Almada

9'▲M. Arroyo←▼E. Esterilla

69'▲D. Díaz←▼M. Caicedo

77'▲V. Ayala←▼M. Oyola

Barcelona SC substitutes

11Arroyo10Díaz20Ayala12Mendoza15Caicedo35Minda37Nahuelpán

Manager: P. Vélez

71'▲M. Solís←▼J. Tévez

75'▲J. Lucas←▼R. Acosta

78'▲J. Cazares←▼R. de Jesús

Macara substitutes

15Solís18Lucas16Cazares32Espinoza33Mercado4Quiñónez7Patta

Liga Pro: Barcelona SC 4–1 Macara

Barcelona SC beat Macara 4-1 in Liga Pro on April 1, 2018.

Goals: J. Dinenno (24' o.g., 57', 63'), D. Aimar (27'), M. Caicedo (39').

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo (Guayaquil).

Barcelona SC vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Pro: Barcelona SC 4–1 Macara