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Barcelona SC vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Emelec
Emelec
7/10/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 11Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Barcelona SC52%
×Draw25%
Emelec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona SC
1.62
Emelec
1.01

Barcelona SC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 131 away

creates per match

Barcelona SC
1.87
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Barcelona SC
0.84
Emelec
1.37

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw
76%
Barcelona SC or Emelec
75%
Draw or Emelec
48%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+
27%
Emelec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals
80%
Barcelona SC 2+ goals
48%
Barcelona SC 3+ goals
22%
Emelec 1+ goals
64%
Emelec 2+ goals
27%
Emelec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)
69%
Emelec (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.84 · 134 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + Emelec defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.62

Emelec attack 1.18 + Barcelona SC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barcelona SC scores more
52%
level
25%
Emelec scores more
24%

Barcelona SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs Emelec

Barcelona SC and Emelec drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.