Barcelona SC 0–1 Argentinos JRS: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Argentinos JRS

D. Porcel 90'

2/19/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 2Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Barcelona SC39%

×Draw27%

Argentinos JRS34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Barcelona SC

1.27

Argentinos JRS

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 9 away

1.43

creates per match

1.22

1.10

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.43

Argentinos JRS

1.22

allows per match

Barcelona SC

1.10

Argentinos JRS

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Argentinos JRS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

66%

Barcelona SC or Argentinos JRS

73%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

61%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

17%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

72%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

36%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

14%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

69%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

32%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

54%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.43 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Argentinos JRS attack 1.22 + Barcelona SC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

39%

level

27%

Argentinos JRS scores more

34%

Barcelona SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

D. Porcel

Argentinos JRS · F

7.7

Match Events

29'

L. Sosa

30'

M. Celiz

35'

F. Fattori

52'

L. Fernandez← T. Molina

59'

L. Lozano

62'

B. Carabali← B. Castillo

62'

J. Garcia← H. Villalba

62'

S. Nunez← D. Benedetto

65'

F. Alvarez

69'

R. D. Riquelme← E. Viveros

69'

L. Giaccone← H. Lopez

70'

J. Baez

76'

J. Gomez← T. Martinez

81'

M. Parrales← J. Perlaza

81'

E. Perez← A. Lescano

81'

D. Porcel← N. Oroz

90'

D. Porcel↳ L. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaArgentinos

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots9

0.66Expected Goals (xG)0.28

3Corners2

7Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target1

8Off Target7

3Blocked1

7Inside Box1

7Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

323Total Passes493

249Accurate Passes426

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.23Goals Prevented0.23

Discipline

7Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Barcelona SC 0–1 Argentinos JRS

Argentinos JRS beat Barcelona SC 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 19, 2026.

Goals: D. Porcel (90').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.

Barcelona SC vs Argentinos JRS — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Barcelona SC 0–1 Argentinos JRS