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Barcelona BA vs ASA — Serie D 2025

Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ASA
ASA
6/15/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Barcelona BA28%
×Draw33%
ASA40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona BA
0.79
ASA
1.01

ASA creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Barcelona BA
1.00
ASA
1.16

allows per match

Barcelona BA
0.86
ASA
0.58

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw
60%
Barcelona BA or ASA
67%
Draw or ASA
72%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+
9%
ASA wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals
55%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
19%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
5%
ASA 1+ goals
64%
ASA 2+ goals
27%
ASA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
41%
ASA (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

ASA away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 1.00 + ASA defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

ASA attack 1.16 + Barcelona BA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barcelona BA scores more
28%
level
33%
ASA scores more
40%

ASA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona BA vs ASA

Barcelona BA beat ASA 1-0 in Serie D on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.