ASA 4–0 Barcelona BA: Result & Stats | Serie D

ASA

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barcelona BA

Marcelo Toscano 90', 80', 42'

Iarley 90'

L. Araujo 65'

W. Simoes Viana 65'

5/24/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ASA70%

×Draw21%

Barcelona BA10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASAExpected goals in this matchBarcelona BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.52

ASA

1.85

Barcelona BA

0.52

ASA creates 256% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

1.70

creates per match

0.29

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

ASA

1.70

Barcelona BA

0.29

allows per match

ASA

0.75

Barcelona BA

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASA+0.00on par

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Barcelona BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ASA or draw

90%

ASA or Barcelona BA

79%

Draw or Barcelona BA

30%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+

42%

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals

84%

ASA 2+ goals

55%

ASA 3+ goals

28%

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

41%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

10%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)

88%

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Barcelona BA away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 1.70 + Barcelona BA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Barcelona BA attack 0.29 + ASA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

ASA scores more

70%

level

21%

Barcelona BA scores more

10%

ASA at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Marcelo Toscano

65'

L. Araujo

65'

80'

90'

90'

ASA

Barcelona

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

ASA substitutes

ToscanoRamonJailsonVianaBarrosJerfessonCarlosFlávioLéoTibiriPapelGabriel

Manager: Carlos Rabello

Barcelona BA substitutes

DikSchimithGeovaniRodrigoRangelWaldsonSandreJohnAntônioRichard

Match Recap: ASA vs Barcelona BA

ASA beat Barcelona BA 4-0 in Serie D on May 24, 2025.

Goals: Marcelo Toscano (42', 80', 90'), L. Araujo (65'), W. Simoes Viana (65'), Iarley (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca in Arapiraca.

ASA vs Barcelona BA — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ASA vs Barcelona BA