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Barcelona B vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barcelona B
Barcelona B
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
10/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B44%
×Draw26%
Osasuna II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona B
1.47
Osasuna II
1.15

Barcelona B creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Barcelona B
1.50
Osasuna II
1.05

allows per match

Barcelona B
1.24
Osasuna II
1.44

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw
70%
Barcelona B or Osasuna II
74%
Draw or Osasuna II
56%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+
22%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals
77%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
43%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
18%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
68%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
32%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)
60%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.50 + Osasuna II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Osasuna II attack 1.05 + Barcelona B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barcelona B scores more
44%
level
26%
Osasuna II scores more
30%

Barcelona B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Barcelona B 2–1 Osasuna II

Barcelona B beat Osasuna II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.