Barcelona B 1–0 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Osasuna II

4/29/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B52%

×Draw25%

Osasuna II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Barcelona B

1.58

Osasuna II

0.96

Barcelona B creates 65% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 46 away

1.66

creates per match

0.96

0.97

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.66

Osasuna II

0.96

allows per match

Barcelona B

0.97

Osasuna II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

77%

Barcelona B or Osasuna II

75%

Draw or Osasuna II

48%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

27%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

79%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

47%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

21%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

62%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

25%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

69%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.66 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Barcelona B defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barcelona B scores more

52%

level

25%

Osasuna II scores more

23%

Barcelona B at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff