Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barcelona B vs Atlético Baleares — League #877 2026

Barcelona B
Barcelona B
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
B. Farinas 90+2' (pen)
V. Morillo 64'
3/8/2026League #877League #877 · Group 3 - 26Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Barcelona B28%
×Draw28%
Atlético Baleares44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona B
1.00
Atlético Baleares
1.32

Atlético Baleares creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Barcelona B
1.00
Atlético Baleares
1.40

allows per match

Barcelona B
1.25
Atlético Baleares
1.00

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw
56%
Barcelona B or Atlético Baleares
72%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
72%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals
63%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
26%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)
39%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.00 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atlético Baleares attack 1.40 + Barcelona B defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barcelona B scores more
28%
level
28%
Atlético Baleares scores more
44%

Atlético Baleares at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
V. Morillo
90+2'
B. FarinasPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #877: Barcelona B 1–1 Atlético Baleares

Barcelona B and Atlético Baleares drew 1-1 in League #877 on March 8, 2026.

Goals: V. Morillo (64'), B. Farinas (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Barcelona.