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Atlético Baleares vs Barcelona B — League #877 2026

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 0
Barcelona B
Barcelona B
V. Morillo 76'
J. Tovar 20'
G. Bonet 10'
M. Keita 2' (pen)
A. Issah 90'
M. Mbacke 86'
J. Hernandez 68'
D. Rodriguez 50'
12/21/2025League #877League #877 · Group 3 - 16Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Baleares53%
×Draw21%
Barcelona B27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
2.17
Barcelona B
1.50

Atlético Baleares creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
1.67
Barcelona B
2.00

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
1.00
Barcelona B
2.67

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Barcelona B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
73%
Atlético Baleares or Barcelona B
79%
Draw or Barcelona B
47%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
32%
Barcelona B wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
89%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
64%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
36%
Barcelona B 1+ goals
78%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
44%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
66%
Barcelona B (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.67 + Barcelona B defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Barcelona B attack 2.00 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
53%
level
21%
Barcelona B scores more
27%

Atlético Baleares at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. KeitaPenalty
10'
G. Bonet
20'
J. Tovar
50'
D. Rodriguez
68'
J. Hernandez
76'
V. Morillo
86'
M. Mbacke
90'
A. Issah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Baleares vs Barcelona B

Atlético Baleares and Barcelona B drew 4-4 in League #877 on December 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Keita (2' pen), G. Bonet (10'), J. Tovar (20'), D. Rodriguez (50'), J. Hernandez (68'), V. Morillo (76'), M. Mbacke (86'), A. Issah (90').

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma.