Barcelona B 3–1 Atlético Baleares: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Baleares

Ángel Rodado 67'

Mika Màrmol 61'

Estanis 53'

Vinícius Tanque 29'

12/12/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B52%

×Draw26%

Atlético Baleares22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.90

Barcelona B

1.54

Atlético Baleares

0.90

Barcelona B creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.66

creates per match

0.82

0.97

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.66

Atlético Baleares

0.82

allows per match

Barcelona B

0.97

Atlético Baleares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

78%

Barcelona B or Atlético Baleares

74%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

48%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

27%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

79%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

45%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

20%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

70%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.66 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Barcelona B defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barcelona B scores more

52%

level

26%

Atlético Baleares scores more

22%

Barcelona B at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Vinícius Tanque

46'

Estanis← Nils Mortimer

47'

53'

58'

60'

61'

67'

70'

71'

71'

71'

Manel Martínez← Dioni

73'

A. Rodado

76'

D. Petcoff

89'

I. Vilarrasa

89'

Lucas de Vega← Matheus Pereira

90+1'

Álex Robles← Carlos Delgado

Barcelona

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Sergi Barjuan

46'▲Estanis←▼Nils Mortimer

89'▲Lucas de Vega←▼Matheus Pereira

Barcelona B substitutes

EstanisVegaEscobarRuiz-AtilCarevićRamosAbdelkaderFuentes

Manager: Xavier Calm

71'▲Isi Ros←▼José Fran

71'▲Josep Jaume←▼Cordero

71'▲Manel Martínez←▼Dioni

90+1'▲Álex Robles←▼Carlos Delgado

Atlético Baleares substitutes

RosJaumeMartínezRoblesRigoFloritGinard

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Atlético Baleares

Barcelona B beat Atlético Baleares 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 12, 2021.

Goals: Vinícius Tanque (29'), Estanis (53'), Mika Màrmol (61'), Ángel Rodado (67').

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.

Barcelona B vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Atlético Baleares