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Barbastro vs Real Zaragoza II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Barbastro
Barbastro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Zaragoza II
Real Zaragoza II
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Barbastro34%
×Draw31%
Real Zaragoza II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbastro
0.96
Real Zaragoza II
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

creates per match

Barbastro
1.02
Real Zaragoza II
1.30

allows per match

Barbastro
0.65
Real Zaragoza II
0.89

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par
Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Real Zaragoza II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw
65%
Barbastro or Real Zaragoza II
69%
Draw or Real Zaragoza II
66%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+
12%
Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals
62%
Barbastro 2+ goals
25%
Barbastro 3+ goals
7%
Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals
62%
Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals
26%
Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)
49%
Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Real Zaragoza II away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Zaragoza II attack 1.30 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Barbastro scores more
34%
level
31%
Real Zaragoza II scores more
35%

Real Zaragoza II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Barbastro 1–0 Real Zaragoza II

Barbastro beat Real Zaragoza II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Deportes in Barbastro.