Bánk 0–4 Balassagyarmat VSE: Result & Stats

Bánk

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Balassagyarmat VSE

8/21/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 5Berkenyei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bánk12%

×Draw18%

Balassagyarmat VSE70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BánkExpected goals in this matchBalassagyarmat VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

2.30

Bánk

0.85

Balassagyarmat VSE

2.30

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 171% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

0.74

creates per match

2.08

2.53

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Bánk

0.74

Balassagyarmat VSE

2.08

allows per match

Bánk

2.53

Balassagyarmat VSE

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

Balassagyarmat VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bánk or draw

30%

Bánk or Balassagyarmat VSE

82%

Draw or Balassagyarmat VSE

88%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+

4%

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals

57%

Bánk 2+ goals

21%

Bánk 3+ goals

5%

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals

90%

Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals

67%

Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)

15%

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Balassagyarmat VSE away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 2.08 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bánk scores more

12%

level

18%

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more

70%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff