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Balassagyarmat VSE vs Bánk — NB III - Northwest 2019

Balassagyarmat VSE
Balassagyarmat VSE
CANC
00:00
Bánk
Bánk
3/5/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 24Balassagyarmati Kövi Pál Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balassagyarmat VSE65%
×Draw20%
Bánk15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balassagyarmat VSE
2.09
Bánk
0.90

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 132% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

creates per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
1.36
Bánk
1.06

allows per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
0.73
Bánk
2.82

finishing

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par
Bánk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balassagyarmat VSE ↓

Bánk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Balassagyarmat VSE or draw
85%
Balassagyarmat VSE or Bánk
80%
Draw or Bánk
35%

Winning margin

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+
40%
Bánk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals
88%
Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals
62%
Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals
34%
Bánk 1+ goals
59%
Bánk 2+ goals
23%
Bánk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)
81%
Bánk (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balassagyarmat VSE at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

Bánk away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.36 + Bánk defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bánk attack 1.06 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more
65%
level
20%
Bánk scores more
15%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Balassagyarmat VSE host Bánk

March 5, 2023: Balassagyarmat VSE take on Bánk in NB III - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Balassagyarmat VSE host Bánk at Balassagyarmati Kövi Pál Sportközpont.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.