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Baník Ostrava W vs Slavia Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
10/11/20251. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Ostrava W6%
×Draw10%
Slavia Praha W84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava W
0.83
Slavia Praha W
3.36

Slavia Praha W creates 305% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava W
1.00
Slavia Praha W
4.05

allows per match

Baník Ostrava W
2.67
Slavia Praha W
0.67

finishing

Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par
Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava W ↓

Slavia Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava W or draw
16%
Baník Ostrava W or Slavia Praha W
90%
Draw or Slavia Praha W
94%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
2%
Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
56%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
20%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
5%
Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
96%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
84%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
7%
Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 4.05, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.00 + Slavia Praha W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Slavia Praha W attack 4.05 + Baník Ostrava W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Baník Ostrava W scores more
6%
level
10%
Slavia Praha W scores more
84%

Slavia Praha W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava W vs Slavia Praha W

Slavia Praha W beat Baník Ostrava W 4-0 in 1. Liga Women on October 11, 2025.