Baník Ostrava II 1–3 Vyškov: Result & Stats | FNL

Baník Ostrava II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vyškov

R. Nogha 48'

D. Mbonu 90+6'

A. Sylla 62'

T. Zajíc 27'

8/4/2024

FNL · Round 4Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Ostrava II39%

×Draw27%

Vyškov34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava IIExpected goals in this matchVyškov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.19

Baník Ostrava II

1.31

Vyškov

1.19

Baník Ostrava II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.40

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II

1.40

Vyškov

1.17

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II

1.20

Vyškov

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Vyškov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw

66%

Baník Ostrava II or Vyškov

73%

Draw or Vyškov

61%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

18%

Vyškov wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

73%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

38%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

14%

Vyškov 1+ goals

70%

Vyškov 2+ goals

33%

Vyškov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

54%

Vyškov (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 1.40 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more

39%

level

27%

Vyškov scores more

34%

Baník Ostrava II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

T. Zajíc

32'

M. Málek← A. Komljenović

35'

O. Conde

48'

R. Nogha

62'

A. Sylla

67'

David Nzanza← P. Jaroň

67'

67'

67'

81'

81'

Z. El Azzouzi← T. Zajíc

82'

G. Reteno Elekana← R. Nogha

85'

90+2'

90+7'

90+1'

90+6'

Baník

Vyškov

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: J. Dvorník

32'▲M. Málek←▼A. Komljenović

67'▲David Nzanza←▼P. Jaroň

67'▲O. Chvěja←▼I. Fomba

82'▲G. Reteno Elekana←▼R. Nogha

85'▲J. Drozd←▼T. Sirotek

Baník Ostrava II substitutes

MálekNzanzaChvějaElekanaDrozd

Manager: J. Kameník

67'▲B. Lacík←▼P. Schön

67'▲T. Egbri←▼O. Condé

81'▲D. Mbonu←▼T. Ulbrich

81'▲Z. El Azzouzi←▼T. Zajíc

90+1'▲M. Novák←▼S. Djanbou

Vyškov substitutes

LacíkEgbriMbonuAzzouziNovák