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Baník Ostrava II vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
FT
1 – 1
Vyškov
Vyškov
J. Martinik 90'
P. Simr 43'
10/10/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 10Fotbalové hřiště Markvartovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baník Ostrava II52%
×Draw23%
Vyškov25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava II
1.78
Vyškov
1.17

Baník Ostrava II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II
2.25
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.09
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw
75%
Baník Ostrava II or Vyškov
77%
Draw or Vyškov
48%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
28%
Vyškov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
83%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
53%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
26%
Vyškov 1+ goals
69%
Vyškov 2+ goals
33%
Vyškov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
67%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more
52%
level
23%
Vyškov scores more
25%

Baník Ostrava II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. Klesa
43'
P. Simr
43'
R. Zalesak
46'
M. Lalkovic← J. Martinik
55'
J. Fulnek
61'
D. Martisiak← M. Kostka
61'
T. Barkov← T. Barkov
67'
K. Jaros← K. Jaros
73'
M. Macej← M. Macej
78'
O. Vintr← D. Nieslanik
82'
D. Zak← D. Zak
90'
J. Martinik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Baník Ostrava II 1–1 Vyškov

Baník Ostrava II and Vyškov drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 10, 2020.

Goals: P. Simr (43'), J. Martinik (90').

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Markvartovice in Markvartovice.