Baník Ostrava II 0–1 Viktoria Otrokovice

Baník Ostrava II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Viktoria Otrokovice

P. Mekota 30' (OG)

10/29/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 13Bazaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Baník Ostrava II58%

×Draw21%

Viktoria Otrokovice22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava IIExpected goals in this matchViktoria Otrokovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.23

Baník Ostrava II

2.12

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.23

Baník Ostrava II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

2.25

creates per match

1.37

1.09

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II

2.25

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.37

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II

1.09

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw

78%

Baník Ostrava II or Viktoria Otrokovice

79%

Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice

42%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

35%

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

88%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

62%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

35%

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

71%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

35%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

73%

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.12

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more

58%

level

21%

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

22%

Baník Ostrava II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Krakovcik

30'

P. MekotaOwn goal

46'

A. I. Bewene← A. I. Bewene

58'

P. Gerza← P. Gerza

63'

D. Latal← D. Latal

73'

Z. Riha

79'

M. Bitta← M. Bitta

81'

M. Kalina

83'

T. Weber← V. Waclawik

86'

M. Temel← M. Temel

87'

R. Russmann

87'

V. Rozek← V. Rozek

90+2'

P. Mekota

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff