Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baník Ostrava II vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
J. Fulnek 78'
M. Jaron 36'
M. Suchy 68'
M. Zednicek 29'
6/1/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 33Bazaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Baník Ostrava II58%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Otrokovice22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava II
2.12
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.23

Baník Ostrava II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II
2.25
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.09
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw
78%
Baník Ostrava II or Viktoria Otrokovice
79%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
42%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
35%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
88%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
62%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
35%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
71%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
35%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
73%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.12

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more
58%
level
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
22%

Baník Ostrava II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Suchy
29'
M. Zednicek
36'
M. Jaron
46'
S. Prokaj← S. Prokaj
53'
O. Yusuf Tunji← O. Yusuf Tunji
53'
M. Kostka← M. Kostka
53'
D. Stoklasek← D. Stoklasek
53'
M. Zednicek
67'
D. Stojicevic← D. Stojicevic
68'
M. Suchy
76'
C. Konate← C. Konate
78'
J. Fulnek
79'
D. Holan
83'
P. Simr← P. Simr
83'
M. Vintr← P. Berger
90+2'
J. Fulnek
90+3'
P. Chovan
90+3'
P. Chovan← M. Fiala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava II vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Baník Ostrava II and Viktoria Otrokovice drew 2-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on June 1, 2022.

Goals: M. Zednicek (29'), M. Jaron (36'), M. Suchy (68'), J. Fulnek (78').

The match was played at Bazaly in Slezská Ostrava.