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Baník Ostrava II vs Artis — FNL 2019

Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Artis
Artis
8/3/2025FNLFNL · Round 4Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Ostrava II38%
×Draw27%
Artis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava II
1.30
Artis
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 103 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.40
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.20
Artis
1.21

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw
65%
Baník Ostrava II or Artis
73%
Draw or Artis
62%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
17%
Artis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
73%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
37%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
14%
Artis 1+ goals
71%
Artis 2+ goals
35%
Artis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
52%
Artis (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 1.40 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Artis attack 1.28 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more
38%
level
27%
Artis scores more
35%

Baník Ostrava II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava II vs Artis

Baník Ostrava II beat Artis 5-0 in FNL on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich in Ostrava.