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Artis vs Baník Ostrava II — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
3/7/2026FNLFNL · Round 18Městský fotbalový stadion Srbská

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Artis46%
×Draw25%
Baník Ostrava II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.56
Baník Ostrava II
1.18

Artis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 30 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Baník Ostrava II
1.27

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Baník Ostrava II
1.60

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Baník Ostrava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Artis or draw
71%
Artis or Baník Ostrava II
75%
Draw or Baník Ostrava II
54%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
23%
Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
79%
Artis 2+ goals
46%
Artis 3+ goals
21%
Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
69%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
33%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
62%
Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Baník Ostrava II attack 1.27 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Artis scores more
46%
level
25%
Baník Ostrava II scores more
29%

Artis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Artis 1–0 Baník Ostrava II

Artis beat Baník Ostrava II 1-0 in FNL on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Srbská in Brno.