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Bani Gansè vs AS Sobemap — Championnat National 2019

Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
FT
1 – 0
AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
3/30/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 10Stade de Banikoara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bani Gansè42%
×Draw32%
AS Sobemap26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bani Gansè
1.09
AS Sobemap
0.79

Bani Gansè creates 38% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bani Gansè
1.20
AS Sobemap
0.94

allows per match

Bani Gansè
0.64
AS Sobemap
0.99

finishing

Bani Gansè+0.00on par
AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bani Gansè ↓

AS Sobemap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bani Gansè or draw
74%
Bani Gansè or AS Sobemap
68%
Draw or AS Sobemap
58%

Winning margin

Bani Gansè wins by 2+
17%
AS Sobemap wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bani Gansè 1+ goals
66%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
30%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
10%
AS Sobemap 1+ goals
55%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
19%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
62%
AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bani Gansè at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.64 · 74 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bani Gansè attack 1.20 + AS Sobemap defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Bani Gansè defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bani Gansè scores more
42%
level
32%
AS Sobemap scores more
26%

Bani Gansè at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bani Gansè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bani Gansè 1 – 0 AS Sobemap

Bani Gansè beat AS Sobemap 1-0 in Championnat National on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Banikoara in Banikoara.